Carbon Emissions Could Drop in 2015, Researchers Say

Annual global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels could drop slightly in 2015, according to a report from the Global Carbon Project. This result contrasts with the growth in emissions before 2014, underlining the need for action to stabilize and permanently lower global CO2 emissions, the researchers conclude.

"In 2014, global CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels grew by just 0.6%," says lead author Rob Jackson, a professor of Earth system science at Stanford University. "This year we expect total emissions to flatten or drop slightly, despite strong growth in gross domestic product worldwide."

Although CO2 emissions slowed during times of economic recession, this would be the first decline during a period of strong global economic growth, Jackson says.

The new report, titled "Reaching Peak Emissions," was published on Dec. 7 in the journal Nature Climate Change, with detailed data published simultaneously in Earth System Science Data.

"Decreased coal use in China was largely responsible for the decline in global CO2 emissions," says report co-author Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom. "After a decade of rapid growth, China's emissions rate slowed to 1.2% in 2014 and is expected to drop by 3.9% in 2015."

The researchers identified China as the world's top CO2 emitter in 2014, responsible for 27% of global emissions, followed by the United States (15.5%), the European Union (9.5%) and India (7.2%).

"Whether a slower growth in emissions will be sustained depends on the use of coal in China and elsewhere, and where new sources of energy will come from," says co-author Pep Canadell of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). "In 2014, more than half of new energy needs in China were met from non-fossil fuel sources, such as hydro, nuclear, wind and solar power."

This trend was also accompanied by slower global growth in petroleum use and faster growth in renewables, with wind and solar capacities achieving record increases in 2014.

"The most promising finding in our report is the coupling of lower carbon emissions with a strong economic growth of more than 3%," says Jackson. "But even if we reach peak global emissions within a decade or two, we'll still be emitting massive amounts of CO2 from burning fossil fuels."